Treasury Guest Lecture: Navigating Global Shifts seminar series - Luiz de Mello (OECD)

About this presentation New Zealand’s economic framework has long emphasised macroeconomic stability, openness, and efficiency. These settings have supported growth and institutional credibility. However, recent global shocks, including supply chain distribution disruption, energy volatility, and geopolitical uncertainty, have highlighted the importance of economic resilience alongside efficiency. New Zealand's macroeconomic framework, characterized by low public debt, a credible monetary policy regime, and strong fiscal institutions, provides capacity to respond to shocks. However, the microeconomic structure of the economy has increasingly been optimised for efficiency, with limited redundancy in key areas such as energy, trade, and supply chains. Using illustrative examples, including dependence on imported liquid fuels, the lecture examines how structural features can amplify the impact of external shocks at the sector level. It then considers how microeconomic resilience can complement existing macroeconomic strengths. Drawing on OECD analysis and international experience, the lecture outlines an industrial policy approach focused on addressing coordination failures, improving diffusion of technology, and strengthening economic ecosystems, rather than selecting firms or sectors. It highlights practical, low-cost policy levers that support adaptability and a small, open economy. About the presenter Luiz de Mello is Director of the Country Studies Branch at the Economics Department of the OECD. Together with the country studies teams, Mr. de Mello provides leadership and strategic direction within the Economics Department, ensuring the design and implementation of analysis and policies which promote stronger, cleaner, fairer and more inclusive economic growth for member and partner countries. Structural policy surveillance, short and long term economic outlooks, public finance and macroeconomic policy analysis are among the key workstreams for policy studies. Earlier in his career, Mr. de Mello held senior positions at the OECD, including Deputy-Director of the Public Governance Directorate and Chief of Staff and Counsellor to the Chief Economist. Prior to joining the OECD, he worked as a Senior Economist at the Fiscal Affairs Department of the International Monetary Fund, and as a Lecturer at the Economics Department of the University of Kent, United Kingdom. He holds a PhD in Economics from the University of Kent, United Kingdom. About this seminar series New ideas, robust evidence, and insights from leading thinkers are crucial to strengthening the Treasury’s economic analysis and policy advice. Our new guest lecture theme — Navigating Global Shifts: Resilience, Challenges and Opportunities for New Zealand — invites us to reflect on how Aotearoa New Zealand can navigate an increasingly complex and interconnected global environment. This series explores the major global forces that shape our economic landscape, including evolving trade relationships, geopolitical developments, and the global movement of people, capital, and ideas. Through these discussions, we aim to deepen our understanding of how New Zealand can build economic resilience, respond effectively to uncertainty, and harness our regional and international partnerships to support economic performance, productivity, and our living standards. Our speakers will explore strategies for mitigating the impacts of global disruptions — from pandemics and climate related events to geopolitical tensions and supply chain shocks – while also examining potential opportunities presented by rapid technological shifts, digital economy, and global innovations, to name a few. The series will consider the role of government in supporting economic transitions, strengthening national resilience, and ensuring that New Zealand remains well positioned to meet emerging global opportunities. By bringing together diverse perspectives, this series seeks to inspire new ways of thinking about New Zealand’s economic future and to support informed, forward looking policymaking. Please note that the views, opinions, findings, and conclusions expressed in the Treasury Guest Lecture Series are those of the individual presenters. They do not necessarily reflect the views of the New Zealand Treasury or the New Zealand Government. For updates and our latest research visit https://www.treasury.govt.nz/