Treasury Guest Lecture: Navigating Global Shifts seminar series - Dr Alan Bollard

About this presentation Economics has been used as an offensive weapon for centuries, though post-war we have seen it as a tool to improve economic welfare. The recent trade and geopolitical tensions are changing this focus. In some policy capitals today, economists are studying how to harm competing economies with sanctions, embargoes, chokepoint mapping, export restrictions, tariffs, blacklisting, asset freezing, currency manipulation, economic kill switches, debt burdens, poison pills, cyber weapons … the list goes on. In other capitals economists are working on defensive economics – ways to protect borders and trade flows, deconcentrate markets, build industrial resilience, plug leakages, test preparedness, threaten reciprocation and retaliation. Of particular interest to New Zealand are the possible small country defence strategies and mitigations available, but they will open up a bunch of difficult policy questions – do they work, at what cost, and who will pay. Welcome to the world of dark-side economics! About the presenter Dr Alan Bollard has held positions as Director of the NZ Institute for Economic Research, Chair of the NZ Commerce Commission, Secretary of the NZ Treasury, Governor of the Reserve Bank of NZ, Executive Director of APEC, Professor at Victoria University, Chair of the NZ Infrastructure Commission, and Chair of the NZ Portrait Gallery. He is currently Chair of the Tertiary Education Commission, Chair of NZ Pacific Economic Cooperation Council, on the Boards of China Construction Bank and the EARIE Think Tank in Jakarta, and teaching at Victoria University of Wellington. He has written a number of economic history books and several novels. Alan is working on a new book entitled “Darkside Economics: The Art of Economic War” which will be published by Anthem Press in early 2027. This seminar represents his personal views. About this seminar series New ideas, robust evidence, and insights from leading thinkers are crucial to strengthening the Treasury’s economic analysis and policy advice. Our new guest lecture theme — Navigating Global Shifts: Resilience, Challenges and Opportunities for New Zealand — invites us to reflect on how Aotearoa New Zealand can navigate an increasingly complex and interconnected global environment. This series explores the major global forces that shape our economic landscape, including evolving trade relationships, geopolitical developments, and the global movement of people, capital, and ideas. Through these discussions, we aim to deepen our understanding of how New Zealand can build economic resilience, respond effectively to uncertainty, and harness our regional and international partnerships to support economic performance, productivity, and our living standards. Our speakers will explore strategies for mitigating the impacts of global disruptions — from pandemics and climate related events to geopolitical tensions and supply chain shocks – while also examining potential opportunities presented by rapid technological shifts, digital economy, and global innovations, to name a few. The series will consider the role of government in supporting economic transitions, strengthening national resilience, and ensuring that New Zealand remains well positioned to meet emerging global opportunities. By bringing together diverse perspectives, this series seeks to inspire new ways of thinking about New Zealand’s economic future and to support informed, forward looking policymaking. Please note that the views, opinions, findings, and conclusions expressed in the Treasury Guest Lecture Series are those of the individual presenters. They do not necessarily reflect the views of the New Zealand Treasury or the New Zealand Government. For updates and our latest research visit https://www.treasury.govt.nz/