Toronto Condo Market 2026 | Why Prices Are Collapsing

Toronto Condo Prices Back in the $300Ks: Why This Isn’t the Bottom (Rent vs Buy Math) The episode breaks down why some Toronto condos are selling in the $300,000s again, with condo prices about 9% below pre-COVID levels, down roughly 5% year over year, and still trending down. Using Toronto Regional Real Estate Board data, it highlights Q4 2025 condo sales of about 3,800 (down ~15% YoY), an average price around $650,000 (down ~5.1% YoY), and rising active listings—signaling supply outpacing demand and giving buyers negotiating power. The discussion explains that studios and small one-bedrooms (about 41% of sales) have seen the biggest declines due to an investor-driven glut as interest rates rose, rents softened, appreciation stalled, and investors exited. Rents are also falling, with average one-bedroom rents down roughly 4–6% year over year, while affordability remains a major issue because owning still costs far more per month than renting (example ranges given: renting ~$2,300–$2,600 vs owning ~$3,500–$4,000 all-in). The script argues that a rapid rebound is unlikely due to ongoing pre-construction inventory delivering into 2026 and multiple years of pipeline supply, and notes that investors are unlikely to return until prices fall more or rents rise materially. It adds nuance for long-term end-users who have qualitative reasons to buy, and recommends using a rent-vs-buy calculator (referenced at realist.ca) that factors in discount rate and investing payment differences. The episode includes an interview with CBC Radio where Daniel Foss (chief real estate officer at valerie.ca) advises most renters not to rush, emphasizes doing the math and considering qualitative factors like security of tenure, and notes that rate cuts have less impact than a 5–10% price move, with OSFI keeping the stress test in place and banks forecasting potential rate increases later. 00:00 Condos in the $300Ks?! What’s really going on in Toronto 01:35 TREB snapshot: Sales down, listings up—buyers have leverage 02:07 Why studios & 1-beds are getting crushed (investor exit + unit glut) 03:19 The real issue: Renting is still way cheaper than owning 04:06 Pre-con pipeline & why a quick rebound is unlikely 05:07 Who should buy anyway? Long-term, lifestyle-driven buyers vs investors 07:39 Run the numbers: Rent vs buy calculator + break-even thinking 10:10 Bottom line summary + segue to CBC Radio interview 11:23 CBC interview: Is now the time to buy? Patience, math, and life factors 18:22 Final takeaway: Do the math, ignore the noise (wrap-up)