Don't Fall for the May Sales Headlines—Here's What Actually Happened (Market Update)

Canada Home Sales ‘Jump’ in May—But the Market Is Still Weak (Tale of Two Markets) The script critiques CREA’s headline that Canadian home sales “jumped” in May, arguing month-over-month gains from April to May are normal seasonality and can mislead. Looking at year-over-year data, sales are still below last year and among the lowest May levels since 2003, with last year already very weak and even weaker on a per-capita basis. While supply is tightening modestly and new listings remain relatively elevated, prices have not confirmed a turnaround: the CREA HPI fell 0.1% month over month and 4.1% year over year, and average price increases can reflect mix and geography. The biggest theme is a split market: many provinces are up since the rate-hiking cycle began, while Ontario and BC are down, leaving affordable regions stronger and unaffordable regions weaker. 00:00 May Sales Headline 00:14 Seasonality vs Reality 00:40 How Weak Is May 01:34 Supply Tightening Check 01:43 Prices and Two Markets 02:27 Provincial Winners Losers 03:23 Balanced or Not 04:20 CREA Spin on Data 05:08 Year Over Year Reality 06:08 Turnaround Doubts Wrap