This housing market signal always predicts a recession

Canada’s Record Affordability Streak (Q4 2025) — Why Housing Still Feels Impossible Canada just recorded eight straight quarters of improving housing affordability, based on National Bank’s Housing Affordability Monitor through Q4 2025, yet the typical mortgage payment still equals 51.6% of median household income. The MPPI fell 0.4 points from Q3 as prices cooled or fell in many markets, rates provided only a small tailwind, and income growth did most of the work—though unevenly amid rising unemployment and high youth unemployment. Affordability improved in six of 10 major markets, led by Vancouver, Calgary, and Toronto, while Quebec City and Ottawa-Gatineau worsened. Toronto (69.8%) and Vancouver (85%) remain extreme, with Vancouver non-condos at about 114%. Ownership costs versus rent still deter buyers, especially in Toronto, and the outlook suggests gradual improvement driven mainly by incomes, not rates, with no guaranteed rebound in sales or prices. 00:00 Affordability Record But Still Painful 00:41 What The Report Shows 01:30 How MPPI Measures Affordability 01:53 Why It Improved This Quarter 02:27 Income Gains And Job Risk 03:21 Recession Context And Long Run Levels 04:13 City By City Winners And Losers 04:45 Toronto Vancouver Reality Check 05:44 Condos Versus Rent Math 06:36 2026 Outlook Rates And Population 07:45 Big Takeaway And Recap 09:08 Subscribe And City Requests 09:19 New Foreclosure Search Tool 09:59 Final Thanks And Sign Off #canada #recession #investing #realestateinvestingcanada #torontorealestate #toronto #ontario