The Bank of Canada just stress-tested a scenario where Canadian home prices fall another 25%.

The Bank of Canada just stress-tested a scenario where Canadian home prices fall another 25%. That is not a forecast. But it tells you what they are worried about. The official message is calm: arrears are still low, most borrowers are managing, and the system is resilient. But under the surface, the risk is obvious: - mortgage payments have already reset higher - unemployment is the variable that breaks borrowers - renewals are still rolling through - and housing prices are already under pressure in several markets The real stress test is not just rates. It is rates plus job losses plus falling home values at the same time. That is the scenario nobody wants to say too loudly. #CanadianRealEstate #BankOfCanada #HousingMarket #MortgageRates #Economics