Ontario's HST Rebate Just Changed the GTA Housing Market—Here's Why Condos Are Losing

Ontario HST Rebate Sparks GTA New Home Sales Surge—Why Condos Lag Behind The episode breaks down early impacts of Ontario’s HST rebate on new homes, as BILD data shows more than 1,000 new homes sold in the GTA in the first month the rebate took effect—nearly triple last year’s level. Daniel Foch, chief real estate officer at Valerie.ca, says builders are largely dropping prices and that even where prices hold, buyers may see effective savings, making new homes about 5–10% cheaper overall, with rebates now potentially returning up to the full 13% HST versus a prior $24,000 cap. Sales skewed to single-family homes as end-user buyers dominate and investor demand has faded. New condos lag sharply (199 sold) due to high construction costs, slow pricing adjustment, and resale condos trading roughly 30% lower. The discussion also covers uncertainty around timing and mechanics pending Royal Assent and federal legislation, with deals being structured to reflect the anticipated rebate process. 00:00 Rebate Sparks Sales 00:26 Meet Daniel Foch 00:37 Affordability Impact 01:12 Why Singles Lead 02:01 Condo Sales Slump 03:22 Prices After Rebate 04:21 Buyer Motivation 06:21 Policy Uncertainty 06:46 How Rebate Works 08:11 Wrap Up And Links