Deflationary Pressure Coming to Canada's Housing Market | The Truth About Precon GST/HST Cut

Canada’s New-Build HST Rebate Explained: Why 13% Off May Not Fix Affordability This episode breaks down Canada’s expanded HST rebate on new-build homes and argues the policy is aimed less at buyer affordability and more at making projects viable for builders and stabilizing residential construction, a major driver of Canada’s economy. It highlights three key factors: reduced buyer borrowing power after rates rose from ~2% to 5–6% (cutting purchasing power 30–40%), the ongoing mortgage stress test that continues to cap demand even if rates fall, and falling builder cost inputs (taxes, land, construction, and soft costs) that could make the policy deflationary for new-build—and eventually resale—prices. The script estimates savings of about $100,000–$130,000 on a $1M home, but notes rate hikes erased roughly $300,000–$400,000 in buying power, meaning incentives only partially offset the affordability gap. 00:00 Rebate Hype vs Reality 00:28 Three Key Lenses 02:07 Borrowing Power Crushed 03:03 Stress Test Ceiling 03:29 Why Expand to All Buyers 06:28 Deflationary Price Pressure 08:10 Costs Falling for Builders 10:04 Quantifying the Savings 10:58 One Year Urgency Signal 12:18 Final Takeaways and Q&A #gst #housingmarket #hst #realestateinvestingcanada #canadaeconomy #canadapolitics #markcarney #dougford #preconstructioncondos #torontorealestate