2026-27 Arrears Forecast: Canada's Biggest Housing Risk Yet

Canada Housing Update: HST Change, Oil Shock Risk, Rising Unemployment & Mortgage Arrears Dan speaker reviews the recent HST/GST housing announcement and notes Ontario’s larger price-cut impact due to both federal and provincial tax, then outlines converging risks—weak economy, rising unemployment, trade war, and a new war—arguing Middle East conflicts often trigger oil shocks that lead to recessions, lower rates, and lower home prices, pushing buyers to wait for certainty. They discuss Canadian inflation and falling M2/M3 money supply, emphasize oil-price spikes as a key recession signal, and summarize Fed criteria that determine shock severity, noting Canada’s exporter status and “petro dollar” effects. Data highlights include CPI at 2.4% with gasoline surging, record monthly gas increases, Ontario’s recession-like unemployment, rising Toronto mortgage delinquency, and expectations that arrears rise into 2026–27 amid renewals. Housing sales remain near cycle lows, prices grind down, new-build supply is heavy, HST-driven developer price hikes are disputed, and investment opportunities may be localized around Canada Strong Fund infrastructure spending. 00:00 HST Shift And Buyer Fear 01:24 Money Supply Warning Signs 02:33 Oil Shocks And Recessions 06:35 Will This Become Recession 11:21 Canada Response To Oil Shock 13:15 CPI Gas And Carbon Tax 17:18 Ontario Recession Spillover 19:56 Unemployment Hotspots And Risk 22:53 Slides And Next Steps 23:23 Delinquencies Track Unemployment 25:56 Canada Recession Drivers Shift 28:17 Canada Strong Fund Impacts 29:35 Arrears Outlook 2026-27 33:30 Home Sales And Prices Slide 37:48 Affordability And Market Limits 39:46 New Builds And HST Reality 42:41 Rentals Surge And Listings Pullback 43:15 Broker Merger Market Signal 45:32 RBC Growth Thesis Wrap Up