Gambling on Armageddon: Costs and Risks of Nuclear Modernization

The United States has embarked on a path to modernize and expand its nuclear arsenal, at an estimated cost of $1.7 trillion over 30 years. Russia and China have followed suit, and existing arms control agreements are nearing expiration with little hope of renewal. These developments raise the risk of a new nuclear arms race, including in tactical nuclear weapons that could lower the threshold for nuclear use. However, a new nuclear arms race is not inevitable. Rather than continuing the unnecessary, costly, and destabilizing nuclear modernization agenda, U.S. policymakers should pursue a more responsible strategy of nuclear deterrence aimed at ensuring the U.S. nuclear arsenal is postured to promote stability and reduce uncertainty. Christopher Preble, Elizabeth Threlkeld, and Geoff Wilson will assess the U.S. nuclear modernization agenda—including the logic underpinning it—as well as its downstream effects in other regions.