Oil Inflation Shock?

Canada is once again being warned about a new wave of inflation—this time because oil prices are rising. With crude pushing higher amid geopolitical tensions, many commentators are once again predicting that rising energy costs will quickly translate into higher prices across the economy. But history suggests the relationship between oil and inflation isn’t nearly that simple. Previous spikes in oil prices haven’t always led to sustained inflation, and the biggest inflationary episodes of the past several decades were tied to much more than energy costs alone. Before assuming that higher oil automatically means another inflation surge for Canadians, it’s worth taking a closer look at what actually drove past inflation spikes—and whether those conditions exist today. #CanadianEconomy #CanadaInflation #OilShocks Links: CBC News: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCuFFtHWoLl5fauMMD5Ww2jA BNN Bloomberg: https://www.youtube.com/@BNNBloomberg/videos From inflation to mortgages, six ways the Iran war could affect your wallet: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/personal-finance/article-iran-war-middle-east-gas-inflation/ WTI Crude (Apr′26): https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/@CL.1 Inflation, consumer prices for Canada: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FPCPITOTLZGCAN Your cost of living likely to surge as Donald Trump’s war-induced oil price hike seeps into Canadian economy: https://www.thestar.com/business/your-cost-of-living-likely-to-surge-as-donald-trump-s-war-induced-oil-price/article_ce74f0a5-c81a-453b-aa58-eb82a07d88b7.html Second-Round Effects of Oil Price Shocks – Implications for Europe’s Inflation Outlook: https://www.imf.org/-/media/files/publications/wp/2022/english/wpiea2022173-print-pdf.pdf Policy interest rate: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/core-functions/monetary-policy/key-interest-rate/ Oil Shock of 1978-79: https://www.federalreservehistory.org/essays/oil-shock-of-1978-79 Spot Crude Oil Price: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) (WTISPLC): https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/WTISPLC Interest Rates: Immediate Rates (24 Hours): Prime Rates: Total for Canada: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/IRSTPI01CAM156N Monetary aggregates: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/rates/indicators/key-variables/monetary-aggregates/ M2: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/M2SL Chartered bank assets and liabilities and monetary aggregates, month-end, seasonally adjusted, Bank of Canada: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1010011601&cubeTimeFrame.startMonth=01&cubeTimeFrame.startYear=1980&cubeTimeFrame.endMonth=05&cubeTimeFrame.endYear=2025&referencePeriods=19800101%2C20250501 Inflation rises again, to new 39-year high of 8.1%: https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-inflation-rate-1.6526060 Why has Core Inflation Remained so Muted in the Face of the Oil Shock?: https://www.oecd.org/content/dam/oecd/en/publications/reports/2007/04/why-has-core-inflation-remained-so-muted-in-the-face-of-the-oil-shock_g17a196a/206408110285.pdf Bank of Canada warns it may tighten into weakness as shocks keep coming: https://www.wealthprofessional.ca/news/industry-news/bank-of-canada-warns-it-may-tighten-into-weakness-as-shocks-keep-coming/391762 Oil prices spike to highest levels in years as Iran war intensifies: https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/oil-prices-spiking-march-9-9.7120238 Bank of Canada plans to keep interest rate near zero until 2023: https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/bank-of-canada-rate-decision-1.5779813 Oil soars past $100 a barrel, stocks plunge as US-Israel war on Iran rages: https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2026/3/9/oil-soars-past-100-a-barrel-amid-iran-war The impact of rising oil prices on U.S. inflation and inflation expectations in 2020–23: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0140988322003735 Oil price pass-through into inflation: https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S014098830800114X Mark Mitchell – Mortgage Broker London Ontario 920 Commissioners road east London, Ontario N5Z 3J1 Phone: (519)860-2102 (Call or Text) MarkMitchell@LondonOntarioMortgages.ca Brokerage Lic: 10464 Broker Lic: M16001479 https://www.LondonOntarioMortgages.ca – Apply Online!! Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/MarkMitchellMortgageBrokerLondonOntario Subscribe NOW for more Mortgage/Financial News/Videos. Follow me on Social Media: Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mortgagebrokerlondonontario Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/londonontariomortgages Twitter - https://twitter.com/londonmortgage1/ LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/mark-mitchell-london-s-mortgage-broker-197842123/ TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@mortgagebrokerlondon?lang=en Commentary on this Channel should not be considered financial advice