Canadian Mortgage Rates Face 2026 Japan Shock
Canada’s fixed mortgage rates could face real pressure if the decades-old Yen Carry Trade begins to unwind. Rising Japanese yields, a stronger yen, and global capital flowing back to Japan would tighten funding conditions around the world — including here at home. This breakdown looks at how the carry trade works, why it may be nearing a turning point, and how a shift in Japan’s bond market can push future Canadian fixed mortgage rates higher. It’s a global money story developing in real time, and understanding it now means not being surprised later. #canadianmortgages #canadianeconomy #carrytrade Links: Is the yen carry trade unwinding?: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FO7cuq1g6Gc Bloomberg Surveillance 8/22/2025: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwX5xJiSgg8 Is the yen carry trade unwinding?: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/video/shows/the-open/2025/11/25/is-the-yen-carry-trade-unwinding/ Japan’s Yield Shock Threatens Global Markets — And Bitcoin May Be Next: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/japan-yield-shock-threatens-global-102505992.html Scramble to 'sell Japan' sounds fiscal warning bells: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/scramble-sell-japan-sounds-fiscal-warning-bells-2025-11-20/ Japan 10 Year Treasury: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/JP10Y-JP U.S. 10 Year Treasury: https://www.cnbc.com/quotes/US10Y How Big Is the Yen Carry Trade, Really?: https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-08-06/how-big-is-the-yen-carry-trade-really Yen to Strengthen 10% in Coming Months on US Rate Cuts, Morgan Stanley Says: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-25/yen-to-strengthen-10-in-coming-months-on-us-rate-cuts-ms-says Table 5: Major Foreign Holders of Treasury Securities: https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/slt_table5.html Foreign Holdings of Federal Debt: https://www.congress.gov/crs-product/RS22331 Bank of Japan's Noguchi advocates gradual interest rate hikes: https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/bank-japans-noguchi-advocates-gradual-interest-rate-hikes-2025-11-27 Japan's leading indicator of service inflation hits 2.7% in October: https://www.marketscreener.com/news/japan-s-leading-indicator-of-service-inflation-hits-2-7-in-october-ce7d5ed2da81ff21 Japan's core inflation in October rises to a 3-month high, supporting the case for rate hikes: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/11/21/japans-inflation-cpi-october-takaichi-boj-monetary-plans.html BOJ Summary Indicates Chance of December Interest Rate Hike: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-11-10/boj-indicates-chance-of-december-interest-rate-hike-with-summary Japan to boost shorter debt to fund stimulus plan; Fitch warns on rating: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/bonds/japan-to-boost-shorter-debt-to-fund-stimulus-plan-fitch-warns-on-rating/articleshow/125606529.cms US Debt Clock: https://www.usdebtclock.org/ America’s path out of $38 trillion national debt crisis likely involves pushing up inflation and ‘eroding Fed independence,’ says JPMorgan Private Bank: https://fortune.com/2025/11/17/america-national-debt-inflation-fed-independence-inflation-fears-jp Federal Surplus or Deficit [-] as Percent of Gross Domestic Product: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSGDA188S Trump Says He Would ‘Love’ To Fire Fed Chair Jerome Powell: https://www.forbes.com/sites/tylerroush/2025/11/19/trump-says-he-would-love-to-fire-fed-chair-jerome-powell/ Federal Reserve ‘absolutely’ ready to help stabilise market if needed, top official says: https://www.ft.com/content/0273371d-b90c-43e4-845a-e51982dd4fdf Canada’s big banks diverge on 2026 rate forecasts as easing cycle nears its end: https://www.canadianmortgagetrends.com/2025/10/canadas-big-banks-diverge-on-2026-rate-forecasts-as-easing-cycle-nears-its-end/ Mark Mitchell – Mortgage Broker London Ontario 920 Commissioners road east London, Ontario N5Z 3J1 Phone: (519)860-2102 (Call or Text) MarkMitchell@LondonOntarioMortgages.ca Brokerage Lic: 10464 Broker Lic: M16001479 https://www.LondonOntarioMortgages.ca – Apply Online!! Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/MarkMitchellMortgageBrokerLondonOntario Subscribe NOW for more Mortgage/Financial News/Videos. Follow me on Social Media: Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mortgagebrokerlondonontario Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/londonontariomortgages Twitter - https://twitter.com/londonmortgage1/ LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/mark-mitchell-london-s-mortgage-broker-197842123/ TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@mortgagebrokerlondon?lang=en Commentary on this Channel should not be considered financial advice
