Canada's Economy "Not-So Good, Bad, or Ugly" on US Trade: BMO
The Canadian economy could face serious long-term damage if a trade war with the U.S. drags on. Even in the most optimistic scenario, things don’t look great. A brand-new Bank of Montreal report lays out three possible futures — from muddling through, to things getting worse, to a full-blown collapse in free trade. And it lands just as Prime Minister Carney meets with President Trump in Washington, where the future of USMCA is suddenly back in question. #canadianeconomy #CanadaUSTradeWar #CarneyTrump Links: Carney, Trump talk trade at White House | Special coverage: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mX8yGE4bOyk Paths Forward (and Backward) for Free Trade: https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/d691b25d-f298-4bc2-8806-ef35fa2b934c/ BMO sees long-term economic damage even from optimistic tariff scenario: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/2025/10/06/bmo-sees-long-term-economic-damage-even-from-optimistic-tariff-scenario/ Trump promises trade fairness for Canada, noncommittal on USMCA deal: https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/canadas-carney-makes-second-white-house-visit-talk-trade-2025-10-07/ BMO chief economist denies Canada’s housing supply ‘myth’: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/investing/markets/inside-the-market/article-bmo-chief-economist-denies-canadas-housing-supply-myth/ Supply is the only cause and solution to Canada's housing woes — it's time to be bold: https://financialpost.com/real-estate/supply-is-the-only-cause-and-solution-to-canadas-housing-woes-its-time-to-be-bold TD CEO Warns Against ‘Knee-Jerk Reaction’ to Canada Housing Boom: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-04-01/td-ceo-warns-against-knee-jerk-reaction-to-canada-housing-boom Posthaste: The not-so good, the bad and the ugly outcomes of tariffs on Canada's economy: https://financialpost.com/news/how-much-damage-could-tariffs-do-canada-economy Canada in ‘investment crisis,’ business council says in federal budget submission: https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/article/canada-in-investment-crisis-business-council-says-in-federal-budget-submission/ Canada's merchandise trade deficit widened in August, with exports falling faster than imports rose: https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/canada-merchandise-trade-deficit-1.7652984 ‘Warning lights are flashing,’ economist says as unemployment hits 7.1%: https://globalnews.ca/news/11394548/canada-jobs-report-august-2025-statistics-canada/ Infra-Annual Labor Statistics: Unemployment Rate Total: 15 Years or over for Canada: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LRUNTTTTCAM156S Canada launches fentanyl crackdown to convince Trump tariffs aren't necessary: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/trump-tariffs-goal-unclear-1.7444985 Carney government quietly dropped more U.S. counter-tariffs than advertised: https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/non-sectoral-tariffs-dropped-1.7643253 Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two-Level Games: https://www.jstor.org/stable/2706785 Bank of Canada lowers policy rate to 2½%: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2025/09/fad-press-release-2025-09-17/ The Mortgage Renewal Wave: Sink or Swim?: https://economics.bmo.com/en/publications/detail/f9a87ba8-9962-4265-a2a9-e51303e269ca/ Bank of Canada rate cut lifts housing market activity: TD chief economist: https://www.bnnbloomberg.ca/business/real-estate/2025/01/29/bank-of-canada-rate-cut-lifts-housing-market-activity-td-chief-economist/ LeBlanc hopes to make progress on steel, aluminum tariff relief before USMCA review: https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-us-canada-steel-aluminum-tariffs-negotiations-usmca/ Trump trolls Canada on Election Day: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/28/trump-trolls-canada-election-day-00312234 It's not the tariffs, it's the chaos: https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/armstrong-tariffs-cusma-compliance-1.7629323 Mark Mitchell – Mortgage Broker London Ontario 920 Commissioners road east London, Ontario N5Z 3J1 Phone: (519)860-2102 (Call or Text) MarkMitchell@LondonOntarioMortgages.ca Brokerage Lic: 10464 Broker Lic: M16001479 https://www.LondonOntarioMortgages.ca – Apply Online!! Youtube Channel: https://www.youtube.com/c/MarkMitchellMortgageBrokerLondonOntario Subscribe NOW for more Mortgage/Financial News/Videos. Follow me on Social Media: Instagram - https://www.instagram.com/mortgagebrokerlondonontario Facebook - https://www.facebook.com/londonontariomortgages Twitter - https://twitter.com/londonmortgage1/ LinkedIn - https://www.linkedin.com/in/mark-mitchell-london-s-mortgage-broker-197842123/ TikTok - https://www.tiktok.com/@mortgagebrokerlondon?lang=en Commentary on this Channel should not be considered financial advice.
