The Quantum Apocalypse is closer than we thought

My latest Network World article: https://www.networkworld.com/article/4153752/new-tool-on-aws-makes-it-easier-to-develop-quantum-error-correction.html My CSO magazine article: https://www.csoonline.com/article/4150887/google-the-quantum-apocalypse-is-coming-sooner-than-we-thought.html In 2019, Google estimated that it would take 20 million qubits to break RSA encryption. By May of 2025, Google revised those estimates down to 1 million. This February, researchers at Australia’s Iceberg Quantum said in a pre-print report that only 100,000 physical qubits were needed. LINK TO 1 MILLION ESTIMATE: https://security.googleblog.com/2025/05/tracking-cost-of-quantum-factori.html LINK TO 100,000 ESTIMATE: https://arxiv.org/abs/2602.11457 Then, on Monday, Caltech researchers said that it could take as few as 10,000 qubits to break traditional encryption. LINK TO CALTECH REPORT: https://www.caltech.edu/about/news/caltech-team-finds-useful-quantum-computers-could-be-built-with-as-few-as-10000-qubits And, on Tuesday -- it's been quite a week! -- Google announced that elliptic curve cryptography -- the kind that protects cryptocurrencies -- can be broken with less than 1,200 logical qubits. LINK TO 1,200 ESTIMATE: https://research.google/blog/safeguarding-cryptocurrency-by-disclosing-quantum-vulnerabilities-responsibly/ Maria Korolov is an award-winning technology journalist, sci-fi author, and editor of a magazine about science fiction and fantasy. Also, a former war correspondent and foreign news bureau chief. MARIA'S LINKS Technology journalism: https://www.mariakorolov.com/ Amazon author page: https://www.amazon.com/stores/Maria-Korolov/author/B07N5KH922 MetaStellar sci-fi and fantasy magazine: https://www.metastellar.com/ Hypergrid Business virtual reality blog: https://www.hypergridbusiness.com/