Higher Stocks, Commodities, Volatile but Range-Bound Bonds

DoubleLine Portfolio Manager Jeff Mayberry and Analyst Mark Kimbrough sort through a positive week ended June 6 for stocks (0:59) and commodities (4:36) amid higher yields and volatility for a still range-bound bond market (2:01). After macro news (5:46) including sub-50 ISM manufacturing and services prints for May, nonfarm payrolls for May pushed stock prices and bond yields higher on Friday. Fed funds futures (17:26) on Friday were pricing in one to two cuts for the year, with the first likely cut to come at the Sept. 17 meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee. As labor and price data stand at present, Jeff Mayberry says, “I think we get no cuts this year.” Jeff and Mark will be looking to the Federal Reserve’s annual Economic Policy Symposium Aug. 21-23 and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s speech at that event for guidance on the course of central bank monetary policy for the remainder of the year. Looking ahead to the June 9-13 week (19:27), Jeff and Mark will be looking for the May CPI on Wednesday, PPI on Thursday and the University of Michigan’s consumer inflation expectation survey on Friday.