'Four Futures of NATO' - A Conversation with Dr Anna Wieslander

As the NATO Summit in Ankara on July 7 approaches, the future of the alliance is being widely debated. US President Donald Trump said ‘bye, bye’ to allies after Denmark’s refusal to hand over Greenland to the United States, and called NATO a ‘paper tiger’ when allies did not side with the US against Iran – triggering President Macron of France to accuse Trump of ‘hollowing out’ the alliance. President Trump’s harsh verbal attacks on allies and the alliance have come at the same time NATO is simultaneously undergoing a profound transformation from a US-led to a European-led NATO (often referred to as ‘NATO 3.0’). The shift has already started, but how it will end, and whether it will succeed, remains to be seen. In light of the perceived Russian threat, and doubts regarding America’s commitment to the continent, what is the future of NATO? In this seminar, Dr Anna Wieslander elaborates upon four of them: first, a ‘moderate’ version with more Europe in NATO; second, a ‘brutal’ one; third, a version where Europe becomes NATO; and fourth, one in which NATO becomes part of the EU. Not all are equally probable, but the uncertainties of where the alliance is heading are big enough to encourage political imagination and factor each potential future into account. What is clear is this: strategic complacency is no longer a viable option. About the Speaker: Dr. Anna Wieslander serves as Director for Northern Europe at American foreign policy think tank the Atlantic Council and as Head of its Northern Europe office in Stockholm. She is also Chair of the Institute for Security and Development Policy (ISDP), a Stockholm-based think tank with a focus on Central Asia and Asia, and a life-time member of the Royal Swedish Academy of War Sciences and the Swedish Society for International Affairs. Dr. Wieslander is currently a Visiting Scholar at the Centre for Geopolitics at the University of Cambridge and a member of the Advisory Board for its Baltic Programme. She is a frequent keynote speaker, lecturer and panelist at international conferences, and regularly comments in national and international mass media including the New York Times, BBC, Times Radio, Politico, Reuters, Wall Street Journal and Financial Times. Dr. Wieslander also publishes extensively on current international affairs. Her prior positions include Secretary General of the Swedish Defence Association, Adjunct Professor at the George C. Marshall Center, Deputy Director at the Swedish Institute of International Affairs (UI), Head of the Speaker’s Office in the Swedish Parliament, Secretary of the Swedish Defence Commission and Deputy Director of the Swedish Defence Ministry. Dr. Wieslander has also held senior management positions in the private sector. Dr. Wieslander holds a PhD in Political Science from Lund University and a degree in Journalism from Gothenburg University, and has also conducted PhD studies at the University of California, Berkeley. Her expertise covers security and defence policy, Northern European security, NATO and the defence industry. About the Moderator: Dr Trevelyan Wing is a Fellow of the Centre for Geopolitics and the Cambridge Centre for Environment, Energy and Natural Resource Governance (CEENRG) at the University of Cambridge. His current research focuses on energy and other pressing security challenges in Northern and Eastern Europe and the High North, as well as the evolving state of transatlantic relations. The recipient of a DAAD award from the German government, Dr. Wing is a former Zukunftskolleg Fellow and Research Associate of the University of Heidelberg. In 2020, he was named a ‘Young Leader’ and one of ‘the most promising and passionate…change-makers of 30 years or younger’ for his work, for which he has also been featured by the BBC, Al Jazeera, RTÉ, The Times, The Telegraph, The Independent, l’Opinion, and elsewhere. Dr. Wing’ s first book, ‘Maidan: The 2014 Revolution in Ukraine and the Baltic’ is due to be published by Hurst in September 2026. A native of New England, he holds a BA from Dartmouth College, an MPhil from the University of Oxford, and a PhD from the University of Cambridge.