In this episode, I sit down with Jens Nordvig (MarketReader) to zoom out on the macro setup heading into the US election and what it means for markets. We dig into why “Trump trades” (stronger dollar, certain equity tilts, even crypto narratives) are a lot less straightforward this time around—especially with polling looking basically 50/50 and the market repeatedly proving it cares more about inflation prints than political headlines. Jens lays out why the Fed is likely to start cutting in September, but do it cautiously and meeting-by-meeting, because inflation forecasting has been humbling for central banks and the labor market is softening only at a “snail pace,” not collapsing. We also unpack the bigger global divergence: the US sitting at the highest rates in decades while China is at historic lows. China’s real estate overhang isn’t a quick fix—it’s a multi-year drag that’s crushing confidence, pressuring demand, and pushing China to “export its way out,” right as tariffs and trade tensions spread beyond the US to Europe and other countries. The punchline for investors: China weakness can keep goods disinflation and commodity pressure alive, which feeds back into how fast the Fed can cut. And importantly for my Future Tech lens, we close on where AI is actually going next—less hype about chips alone, more about embedding AI into real businesses like banking and financial services.